Trump’s recent election win has reignited debates over the future of global energy markets. Known for his pro-fossil fuel stance and scepticism toward renewable energy, Trump’s return to the White House signals a potential policy shift that could upend the energy landscape. While oil and gas producers cheer the prospect of fewer regulations and expanded drilling rights, the renewable energy sector may face challenges in securing its recent momentum. The nuclear industry, too, stands at a crossroads, with its role in Trump’s agenda remaining uncertain.
During his first term, Trump championed “energy dominance,” rolling back Obama-era regulations and boosting domestic oil and gas production. His administration opened millions of acres of federal land for drilling and eased restrictions on pipeline projects, driving growth in fossil fuel industries. Early indicators suggest his second term will follow a similar trajectory. Industry groups have already expressed optimism, with companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron seeing a post-election rally in share prices, bolstered by expectations of favourable policies.
This shift could stall the rapid expansion of renewable energy. Federal incentives for wind and solar power, extended under Biden, are unlikely to remain a priority under Trump’s leadership. Subsidies for clean energy technologies could be slashed, and environmental regulations reinstated under Biden could again be scaled back. For global markets, this could lead to a temporary slowdown in the transition to greener energy, particularly in the U.S., one of the world’s largest energy consumers.
Nuclear energy occupies a unique position in Trump’s energy agenda. While it aligns with his focus on energy independence, Trump’s previous term offered mixed signals regarding support for the sector. In his second term, the nuclear industry could benefit from increased federal investment in domestic energy sources or face competition as Trump’s policies prioritise oil and gas. Given the rising cost of fossil fuels during geopolitical tensions, nuclear’s potential as a stable, low-carbon alternative might gain some traction, but this depends largely on federal priorities and funding allocation.
One key aspect of Trump’s energy policy is his use of tariffs for economic leverage. During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on solar panels, which disrupted supply chains and raised costs for renewable energy projects. A similar strategy could emerge again, potentially targeting imports of critical components for wind, solar, and electric vehicles. These tariffs would likely benefit domestic fossil fuel industries by increasing the relative cost of renewables, further tilting the market in favour of oil and gas.
The international implications are equally significant. Countries reliant on US energy exports, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), may welcome the shift, but tensions with nations advocating for climate-focused policies could escalate. Europe, for instance, may find itself at odds with the US, as Trump’s energy policies diverge sharply from the continent’s ambitious green agenda.
Trump’s energy agenda has the potential to reshape global markets in ways that benefit traditional energy sectors while challenging the progress of renewables. Investors should prepare for market volatility as policies evolve, while industries must navigate an environment where the scales are tipped toward fossil fuels. Whether this is a short-term adjustment, or a long-term shift depends on the global response to a world once again led by Trump’s pro-fossil fuel policies.
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