After nearly 14 years of devastating civil war between President Bashar al-Assad’s Ba’athist government and opposition forces, Syria endured hundreds of thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions. In a dramatic turn of events, rebels surged through the country’s northwest, toppling the regime that had ruled for over 50 years in just two weeks.
Spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, and supported by other rebel groups, including the Turkish-backed opposition Syrian National Army, the offensive toppled the Assad regime after taking Homs and Aleppo, two of the country's largest cities, before taking Damascus on the 8th of December. The group is led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, a former Al-Qaeda regional leader seemingly turned pragmatic strongman. He has presented himself as a moderate, but whether this will last is yet to be seen.
The civil war began after peaceful pro-democracy protests, part of the wider Arab Spring protests across the region in 2011, were violently suppressed on the orders of Assad. The regime employed chemical weapons against its people and extensive torture programs throughout the war. The influx of refugees leaving the country and heading to Western countries has likely contributed to the rise of the far right across Europe as anti-immigrant sentiment builds.
After several years of dormancy, the offensive seemingly came out of the blue. Russia, distracted in Ukraine, was not able to provide Assad with the resources to bolster his position. Similarly, Iran has been weakened after the decline of its proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the killing of several members of its top brass. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA), the Syrian government forces, were severely underequipped, underpaid and demoralised after years of fighting, providing a weakness that opposition forces could exploit.
Turkey, despite designating it as a terrorist group, has provided indirect support to HTS for several years, allowing aid and trade to flow into the HTS-controlled Idlib province and allowing the group to remain relatively undisturbed by Syrian Government forces through its presence in the region.
After negotiations between Turkish President Erdogan and President Assad over refugee repatriation and mending of ties stalled in October, it is speculated that Erdogan gave the green light to HTS to begin their assault on Aleppo. Turkey stands to gain the most, perhaps of any other regional players, from HTS taking Damascus. With the balance of power in Syria tilting away from Iran and Russia, Turkey can extend its influence by filling the void they left.
With the fate of the Assad regime becoming more apparent each day as rebel forces advanced, both countries began to withdraw their troops. However, Russia has held on to its air base in Latakia and the Tartus Naval base, it’s only Mediterranean staging post. The loss of influence in Syria is a significant blow to Iran, compounding its weakened state.
Israel, meanwhile, struck strategic sites within Syria and advanced through the demilitarised zone at the border between the two countries, arguing that the ceasefire agreement between the two is void, as the opposing signatory party has ceased to exist. Israel claims these measures are to pre-empt any danger posed by the new regime. Still, these actions have been criticised, including by French Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock:
Syria’s GDP shrank by more than half between 2010 and 2020, leading to its reclassification as a low-income country in 2018 by the World Bank. Between the beginning of the war in 2011 and 2016, the World Bank estimated that the country suffered a cumulative GDP loss of $226 billion, four times the 2010 Syrian GDP. The country remains under strict Western sanctions and will require hundreds of billions of dollars of investment to rebuild.
It is unclear what will happen now. Divisions remain between disparate rebel groups, with conflicts continuing in the northeast. Jolani has said that women and minority groups will be protected and free from strict Islamic codes, any violent reprisals and torture of soldiers conscripted into the former SAA would be punished, and many civil servants have been allowed to retain their positions.
Despite this, doubts remain about HTS and its leader, with some worried that their diplomatic language may slip into a more authoritarian, conservative tone once the world’s eyes wander elsewhere. Nevertheless, a rare optimism has gripped the country and its people worldwide, hoping this moment will mark a turning point for the nation for the better.
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